China’s economy will overtake that of the United States by 2035 and be twice its size by midcentury, a study released Tuesday by a US research organization concluded. The report by economist Albert Keidel of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said China’s rapid growth is driven by domestic demand more than exports, and will sustain high single-digit growth rates well into the 21st century.

Under current market-based estimates, China’s gross domestic product is about three trillion dollars compared to 14 trillion for the United States. Based on a more controversial purchasing power parity (PPP) measure used by the World Bank and others to correct low labor-cost distortions, he said China’s GDP is roughly half of that of the United States.

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