If you didn’t have ethanol, you would not have the prices we have today

The globe’s worst food crisis in a generation emerged as a blip on the big boards and computer screens of America’s great grain exchanges. As prices rise, major grain producers including Argentina and Ukraine, battling inflation caused in part by soaring oil bills, were moving to bar exports on a range of crops to control costs at home. It meant less supply on world markets even as global demand entered a fundamentally new phase.

At the same time, food was becoming the new gold. Investors fleeing Wall Street’s mortgage-related strife plowed hundreds of millions of dollars into grain futures, driving prices up even more. By Christmas, a global panic was building. With fewer places to turn, and tempted by the weaker dollar, nations staged a run on the American wheat harvest.

Foreign buyers, who typically seek to purchase one or two months’ supply of wheat at a time, suddenly began to stockpile. They put in orders on U.S. grain exchanges two to three times larger than normal as food riots began to erupt worldwide.

The food price shock now roiling world markets is destabilizing governments, igniting street riots and threatening to send a new wave of hunger rippling through the world’s poorest nations. It is outpacing even the Soviet grain emergency of 1972-75, when world food prices rose 78%. By comparison, from the beginning of 2005 to early 2008, prices leapt 80%. Much of the increase is being absorbed by middle men — distributors, processors, even governments.

At least 14 countries have been racked by food-related violence.The crisis, it fears, will plunge more than 100 million of the world’s poorest people deeper into poverty, forced to spend more and more of their income on skyrocketing food bills.

People worldwide are coping in different ways. Although China has tried to calm its people by announcing reserve grain holdings of 30 to 40% of annual production, a number that had been a state secret, anxiety is still running high. In India, the government recently scrapped all import duties on cooking oils and banned exports of non-basmati rice. Even wealthy nations are being forced to adjust to a new normal. In Japan, a country with a distinct cultural aversion to cheaper, genetically modified grains, manufacturers are risking public backlash by importing them for use in processed foods for the first time.

In the United States, experts say consumers are scaling down on quality and scaling up on quantity if it means a better unit price. In the meat aisles of major grocery stores, steaks are giving way to chopped beef and people used to buying fresh blueberries are moving to frozen. Some are even trying to grow their own vegetables.

A big reason for higher wheat prices, for instance, is the multiyear drought in Australia, something that scientists say may become persistent because of global warming. But wheat prices are also rising because U.S. farmers have been planting less of it, or moving wheat to less fertile ground. That is partly because they are planting more corn to capitalize on the biofuel frenzy. If market forces had played a larger role in food trade, some now argue, the world would have had more time to adjust to more gradually rising prices.

Europe, Here They Come 

European MBA programs may have traditionally lacked the brand recognition of their U.S. counterparts, but that’s changing fast. The continent’s increasingly dynamic business environment, improvements to curricula, and growing corporate demand for employees with international experience are attracting top-notch candidates from all over the world. In addition, most Europe management programs are cheaper, shorter, smaller, and more diverse than their U.S. rivals, which is drawing a growing number of American students to studies in the Old World.

Applications from the U.S. to INSEAD, an elite French business school with campuses in Fontainebleau and Singapore, grew 20% in the past year and the school’s 2008 enrollment of Americans grew nearly 24% since 2007, to 73 students.

Young people are recognizing the value of an MBA but don’t want to spend two years earning one—the length of most U.S. programs. Others credit the U.S. recession. The average tuition at the top 10 European schools is less than $73,000, vs. $86,600 at Harvard Business School, and about $95,000 at Wharton. Furthermore, MBA students are increasingly looking to pursue social justice through business, and many European schools have responded with a wealth of new courses on corporate social responsibility, social entrepreneurship, and doing business in developing countries.

A potential threat to the growth of European MBA programs is 46 European countries have pledged to adopt an Anglo-American system of higher education by 2010 and to recognize each other’s degrees more than in the past. Rather than spending as many as six years at one school to earn one degree, students will complete a bachelor’s degree in three to four years and have the option to do a master’s elsewhere.

To build on their growing reputations, many European institutions are now opening satellite campuses in other parts of the world, particularly the Middle East and Asia. While the repercussions for Europe’s MBA programs remain to be seen, the current outlook is bright: Applications are up, admissions are increasingly selective, and ever more companies are demanding multilingual recruits with global polish.

Consumers still face at least 10 years of more expensive food

From subsistence farmers eating rice in Ecuador to gourmets feasting on escargot in France, consumers worldwide face rising food prices in what analysts call a perfect storm of conditions. Freak weather is a factor. But so are dramatic changes in the global economy, including higher oil prices, lower food reserves and growing consumer demand in China and India. While the price of spaghetti has doubled in Haiti, the cost of miso is packing a hit in Japan.

In the long term, prices are expected to stabilize, but consumers still face at least 10 years of more expensive food. The Chinese middle class is starting to change the traditional thought process of beef as a luxury. Attempts to control prices in one country often have dire effects elsewhere. China’s restrictions on wheat flour exports resulted in a price spike in Indonesia this year, according to the FAO. Ukraine and Russia imposed export restrictions on wheat, causing tight supplies and higher prices for importing countries.

Consider Bermuda As An Alternative? 

Bermuda’s main commercial district is home to thousands of the world’s top hedge funds. But the British colony has been struggling to catch up to its Caribbean cousins, the Caymans and British Virgin Islands, in the race for the $2 trillion hedge fund industry’s fast-growing offshore business. That could soon change.

In the next 12 months, the 22-square-mile land of pink beaches and rolling golf courses expects to raise the number of registered funds by 50% to 3,000. While Bermuda dominates the offshore insurance industry, the Cayman Islands is the epicenter for hedge funds, with about 9,000 of these loosely regulated investments registered in the British territory. But Bermuda is competing hard, having recently made registration quicker, easier and cheaper. It also touts its proximity to the United States. It is only a two-hour flight from New York, while a trip to Caymans is much longer and often involves a stopover in Florida.  

Managers who invest for foreigners or tax-exempt U.S. clients, such as pension funds and colleges, are attracted to offshore centers because costs are lower and regulatory requirements less stringent than in the United States. In return, hedge funds bring lucrative business to the offshore centers at a time when many islands are trying to diversify revenue away from tourism. To reach the ambitious goal of registering roughly 1,000 new hedge funds in the next year, Bermudans are jetting to international conferences. The primary targets are in Europe, the Middle East and Asia. For years, U.S. lawyers have urged hedge funds to set up in the Caymans. The Caymans occasionally suffer from a reputation of relaxed oversight, thanks to several recent hedge fund collapses. And the 1993 Hollywood movie “The Firm” is about a law firm whose nefarious activities include money-laundering in the Caymans.

Watch out for a growing number of trust fund babies in Asia

The opportunities for private banks in Asia Pacific are big, and still growing. The region is home to more than a quarter of the world’s high net worth individuals (HNWIs) - the industry jargon for people with $1m of investable assets. Their wealth is growing by 8.5% a year. By 2011, their combined riches will total $12,700bn.

The difference between North America and Europe? The wealth management business in Asia is a lot more diverse than in Europe or north America - in terms of providers, legal jurisdictions and customers. Potential clients might be a Japanese aristocrat whose family has been rich for generations, or a Malaysian entrepreneur who grew up in a kampong (village) and now wants to invest the proceeds of an IPO according to Islamic shariah principles.

China continues to boom - there are estimated to be at least 300,000 Chinese HNWIs. Foreign private banks are setting up branches as quickly as they can. They are starting to move inland from the wealthy cities along the coast to service the growing number of entrepreneurs in China’s West. India is also showing enormous promise too. Asian HNWIs tend to be more mobile than their counterparts in Europe or north America. That diversity may mean opportunities in providing specialist tax services, for example.

Asian clients may have very different ideas about what private bankers should do for them. A western approach based solely on analysing risk tolerance in accordance with modern portfolio theory, and recommending appropriate products, may not sit well with a customer who is just looking for share tips. It takes time to build trust with such clients, and help them to understand that wealth preservation and growth is more complicated than betting on shares on China’s overheated stock market.

The need for private banking is likely to intensify as a big wave of wealth starts to flow down the generations. “In Asia people may not be as open with me as western clients about all of their investments, so I can’t always make appropriate recommendations,” says one private banker.  The “rags-to-riches” ethnic Chinese entrepreneurs of south-east Asia are beginning to die off. Many left home to seek their fortunes as manual workers in the tin mines of Malaya, or fled China when the communists took over, to start small businesses that grew into family conglomerates. Such patriarchs learned about business the hard way. Many may not have been educated past primary school. But their grandsons - and granddaughters - may well have been to top international business schools, and have very different ideas about how the family business should be run. They may even consider whether the business should be sold off, and the cash invested instead. Watch out for a growing number of trust fund babies in Asia.

Research suggests that many rich families in Asia are ill-prepared for generational change. Only half of the 33 families surveyed in Hong Kong, India, Malaysia and Taiwan said they involved the next generation in managing the business. Many young graduates even felt that inheriting the family company would be a burden, as it constrained their career choices.

Asia, outside of Japan, and the Middle East would need 10,000 new private bankers by 2010. Private bankers need more than quantitative skills. They must watch the markets, in case the client asks their opinion. It also helps to speak a few languages, especially Chinese dialects. Such people are rare and no bank seems happy with the recruitment situation. Publicly, managers talk about providing staff with friendly environments and great career opportunities to win the battle for talent.  93% of customer relationship managers in private banks in Asia said they had been approached by rivals in the past year.  One in seven private banks risked losing a third of its staff or more. It is not unusual for entire teams to follow a talented manager and take their clients with them. 

The boom in private banking is sharpening traditional rivalries between the north and south-east Asian hubs of Hong Kong and Singapore. Both have trustworthy reputations as financial centres. Wealth managers have traditionally clustered in Hong Kong. But Singapore, which has the world’s fastest growing population of dollar millionaires, has been catching up.

7 Countries Saying Bye Bye To The US Dollars

1. Saudi Arabia:  Saudi Arabia has refused to cut interest rates along with the US Federal Reserve. This is seen as a signal that a break from the dollar currency peg is imminent.
2. South Korea:  In 2005, Korea announced its intention to shift its investments to currencies of countries other than the US. There are whispers that the Bank of Korea is planning on selling $1 billion US bonds in the near future, after a $100 million sale this past August.
3.  China:  China is threatening a “nuclear option” of huge dollar liquidation in response to possible trade sanctions intended to force a yuan revaluation.
4. Venezuela:  In September, Chavez instructed Venezuela’s state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA to change its dollar investments to euros and other currencies in order to mitigate risk.
5. Sudan:   Sudan is, once again, planning to convert its dollar holdings to the euro and other currencies. Additionally, they’ve recommended to commercial banks, government departments, and private businesses to do the same.
6. Iran:  Iran is perhaps the most likely candidate for an imminent abandonment of the dollar. Recently, Iran requested that its shipments to Japan be traded for yen instead of dollars.
7. Russia:  They’ve discussed pricing oil in euros, a move that could provide a large shift away from the dollar and towards the euro, as Russia is the world’s second-largest oil exporter.

Why The Weak Dollar?  First, there’s the difference between the interest rate in the United States (the one the Federal Reserve just dropped) and the interest rates of other central banks around the world. When the United States dropped its rate, other banks did not follow. Now the spread between the interest rate at the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve is smaller than it has traditionally been, and that has weakened the value of the dollar against the euro.

Second, central banks around the world have been diversifying their holdings away from dollars to euros, British pounds and so on. That means there are more dollars out there in currency markets available to purchase. More dollars floating around means diminished value.

What’s This All Mean?   Many of them want to protect their financial interests, and a number of them want to end the US oversight that comes with using the dollar. Although it’s not clear how many of these countries will actually follow through on an abandonment of the dollar, it is clear that its status as a world currency is in trouble. The dollar’s status as a cheaply-produced US export is a vital part of our economy. Losing this status could rock the financial lives of both Americans and the worldwide economy.